A few weeks ago, I had the pleasure of going to the Tualatin Chamber’s 2026 State and National Economic Outlook presentation at Tualatin Country Club which featured State Economist Carl Riccadonna. I reported on last year’s event as well and found him to be engaging, honest, and a good communicator of Oregon’s current status compared to other States and was looking forward to what we might expect in 2026.
In a room of more than 150 people, he began his discussion by asking for a show of hands of those who feel that we are headed towards a recession, and to my shock, I was only one of two people who raised their hands. People looked at me like I was a teller of doom. At first, I wondered if I had misunderstood the question, but no, I hadn’t.
The definition of a recession is, “a significant, widespread, and sustained decline in economic activity, typically lasting more than a few months.” It’s not difficult to acknowledge that this is precisely where we are economically in the State of Oregon today. I’ve been reporting on this sluggish economy since the beginning of 2025 and the slowdown was true then, just as it is now.
Carl Riccadonna had a great slide show and explained how the State Coffers are doing pretty well, as the wealthy are paying significant cap gains taxes on their wonderful investments, along with some of the top businesses paying lots of taxes.
And while saying how well the State was doing, he quietly drops, “other than the construction and manufacturing sectors.” Wait a second! I felt like screaming, “How can the state be healthy when construction and manufacturing are off by double digits?” And on the next slide he quickly glossed over how poor the employment numbers were, with Oregon being well below the national average. Call me a cynic, but this was not jiving with me whatsoever.
A couple of months ago I cited a respected local banker who said he couldn’t think of one of his clients who was on the grow. This conference had dozens of bankers in the room who have personal knowledge of the same scenarios, and not one raised their hands, including noted banker, when asked if we’re headed towards a recession. I was stunned.
Maybe optimism will get us out of the recession, but I feel that honest, real acceptance of the truth is vital to our recovery. While I respect State Economist Carl Riccadona’s grasp of the economy, I felt he was more of a cheerleader this year than a conveyor of facts. To look at the numbers he shared and say that we’re not in, nor heading towards a recession is simply not plausible.
I am optimistic that we will turn around, just not sure when, but feel hopeful that if/when tariffs go away, we might recover fairly quickly, as that is a major reason for the mess we are in. I remain hopeful.
