Oregon’s most populous county has lowest voter turnout one week before election, likely because of ranked voting system, expert says
Oregon election officials have received 357,000 ballots as of Tuesday, about 12% of the 3.1 million sent to registered voters across the state ahead of the May 19 primary.
That’s a third of the overall voter turnout during the 2024 primary, according to the Oregon Secretary of State’s Elections Division, though voters still have a week to get their ballots in, ideally via ballot boxes with just seven days left to vote.
Voter turnout so far is on track with previous years, according to John Horvick, senior vice president and elections expert at Portland-based DHM Research. The average voter turnout was about 11% one week before primary elections from 2002 to 2022, he said.
Voter turnout in the primary will play a key role for several races, particularly for the 14 Republican candidates vying for their party’s nomination to run for governor in November. The primary will also determine whether new party challengers will beat out incumbent Democratic lawmakers and Republican state lawmakers, and in Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District, it’ll determine which of six Democrats will very likely challenge U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz, an Ontario Republican, in November.
A larger proportion of Republican voters have sent in their ballots so far — about 17% of registered Republicans as opposed to 15% of registered Democrats. By numbers, however, more registered Democrats have submitted ballots because there are more registered Democrats in Oregon.
“It’s not a huge difference, but typically, Republicans do tend to turnout a little bit more in these primary elections. And again, they have the highest profile elections on the Republican side,” he said.
As of Tuesday, about 144,000 Democrats had cast ballots, accounting for 40% of the votes received so far. Republicans had cast about 123,300 ballots, representing 35% of the total vote.
The remaining 25% of votes came from non-affiliated voters or voters registered with third parties. Oregon has a closed primary system, so these voters can’t vote for Republican or Democratic candidates in this election, but they can still vote in nonpartisan races, such as the race to lead Oregon’s Bureau of Labor & Industries and on measures to enact or repeal laws, raise taxes and other issues.
“It’s early, you know, plenty of time for voters to get in, but I’d say right now, overall turnout looks pretty typical,” Horvick said.
Oregon’s most populous county has the lowest voter turnout so far
Multnomah County, the state’s most populous county, stands out for lowest voter turnout out of Oregon’s 36 counties so far, Horvick said. Only 8.5% of voters had turned in their ballots as of Tuesday, according to state data.
He said it’s likely because Portland in 2024, and Multnomah County this year, officially switched to ranked-choice voting for city and county elections, rendering primaries moot for local races because voters can select and rank multiple candidates in the November general election, with the top one getting elected. But Portlanders and Multnomah County residents filling out primary ballots will still be choosing gubernatorial, congressional and legislative candidates, and deciding local ballot measures.
“In previous years, we would have competitive city council and county commission races right now, and that would drive interest and potentially turnout, but because they changed the voting system, those elections no longer occur,” Horvick said.
Make your vote count
May 12 is the last day the Oregon Secretary of State recommends mailing in your ballot to avoid delays.
Drop your ballot off at any official dropbox location by 8 p.m. May 19.
