After the up and down year 2023 proved to be, I am bullish about 2024. Despite the global strife, the normal chaos of an election year, and the fear that gripped our economy last year, I remain positive that this year will prove to be better than last.
The lows we felt in the staffing business that hit hardest during the summer months, normally our busiest time, seem to have been replaced by steady hiring and confidence within our client base ever since, starting in September. We had an unusually strong 4th quarter that ultimately brought us to nearly the same numbers we had in 2022 and has led to a spurt of hiring that is continuing into the first weeks of this year. These are certainly not signs of slowing down, but instead just the confidence and growth we were hoping for.
If the persistent rumors of lowering interest rates prove to be correct, inflation stays tamped down, we could be back into a growth mode. Could the damages from the slowdown that caused such chaos in 2023 possibly have been averted? Was the slowdown based upon fear instead of reality? We’ll never really know, but what is important is that we see a more confident and robust economy moving forward.
Recent numbers reveal that 2023 Christmas spending was up 3%, less than the whopping 5.4% increase in 2022, which can be explained by post pandemic euphoria spending, but in a year when interest rates spiked, inflation was rampant, fear was everywhere, I consider that a huge victory!
I’m not sure about you, but I see restaurants full, malls bustling, new cars buzzing around, and travel plans on the rise globally. When researching this, I was amazed at the new categories that seem to be driving the upward growth in travel, and they are ‘music tourism’ (people traveling to shows), ‘surprise travel’ (companies selling packages that don’t reveal destinations until arrival), and my favorite, ‘palate-led travel’ (getaways centered around food and drink).
The bottom line is that American’s are spending money at pre-pandemic levels. This is good for business, but I’m not clear on how good it is for the consumer, as consumer debt is once again on the rise after the decline it saw during Covid. Some argue that consumer debt is back to normal and the Covid years were not typical, but regardless, dollars are being spent and consumerism is up – at least for now.
So having said all that, I go back to my very non-scientific prognosis that our local economy will be better in 2024 than it was in 2023. Whether it is due to consumer confidence, or better economic news, we see more companies hiring, more people getting jobs at higher wages, and demand for our clients is up, which means that they are selling products. The world moves forward. Let’s hope these early positive signs for 2024 prove to be long-lasting and sustainable.
